Image of a stack of gold coins

Macroeconomics

About us

Researchers in the Macroeconomics Research Cluster are engaged in work across a broad range of themes covering both closed and open economy topics and management of economic policy at shorter and longer-term horizons. More specifically, recent work has addressed a wide variety of issues pertaining to:

  • Growth
  • Development and international tax competition
  • Exchange rate fluctuations and economic policy
  • The optimal design of monetary and fiscal policy, trade policy, growth and economic inequality
  • Financial market incompleteness
  • Investment frictions in the macroeconomy
  • The role of news in business cycle analysis
  • Labour market distortions and the optimal conduct of economic policy
  • The credibility of economic policymakers and the issues involved in policy formation when the “true” model of the economy is unknown
  • The economics of independence/devolution

The researchers in the Macroeconomics Research Cluster are regular visitors to central banks and other policymaking institutions around the world. There are also close ties between the cluster and policymakers here in the UK.

Macroeconomics Seminar Series

The Macroeconomics Seminar Series welcomes distinguished researchers from other institutions to present their latest work.

On our Research Seminar webpage you will find abstracts and biographies for upcoming seminars.

For further information and to register for seminars, don't hesitate to contact the Research Team.

 

2023-2024

18 September 2023
Dr Livio Stracca, European Central Bank

5 October 2023
Dr Agnes Kovacs, King College London

19 October 2023

26 October 2023
Dr Giacomo Pozetto, CREI

9 November 2023
Dr Co-Pierre Georg, EDHEC Business School

30 November 2023
Dr Karin Kinnerud, BI Norwegian Business School

22 February 2024
Dr Joseba Martinez, London Business School

21 March 2024
Professor Matthias Doepke, London School of Economics

18 April 2024
Professor Paul Klein, Stockholm University

25 April 2024
Professor Nir Jaimovich, University of California

2 May 2024
Dr Juan Ignacio Vizcaino, University of Nothingham

23 May 2023
Dr Calin Arcalean, ESADE Barcelona

 

We foster a positive and productive environment for seminars through our Code of conduct.

Econometrics Seminar Series

The Econometrics Seminar Series allows distinguished researchers from other institutions to present their latest work.


Abstracts and biographies for upcoming seminars can be found on our Research Seminars webpage.

Please note that our seminars are online through Zoom and in person at the University of Glasgow. Seminars are open to all. For further information and to register for individual seminars, please contact the Research team.

Econometrics Seminar Series 2023 - 2024.

Thursday, 31 August 2023. 16:00
Professor Herman van Dijk, Erasmus University

Friday, 6 October 2023. 15:00
Professor Valentina Corradi, University of Surrey

Friday, 20 October 2023. 15:00
Professor Carlos Velasco, University Carlos III

Friday 27 October 2023. 15:00
Professor Tatiana Komarova, University of Manchester

Friday 3 November 2023. 15:00
Dr Ben Deaner, University College London

Friday, 17 November 2023. 15:00
Professor Laura Coroneo, University of York

Friday, 24 November 2023, 11:30 (Online)
Dr Jiaying Gu, University of Toronto

Friday, 1 December 2023. 16:00 (Online)
Dr Domenico Giannone, University of Washington

Friday, 8 December 2023. 16:00 (Online)
Dr Tatevik Sekhposyan, Texas A&M University

Friday, 16 February 2024. 15:00
Professor Alexey Onatsky, University of Cambridge

Friday, 23 February 2024. 15:00
Dr Jennifer Castle, University of Oxford

Friday, 1 March 2024. 15:00
Professor Harron Mumtaz, Queen Mary University of London

Friday, 15 March 2024. 15:00
Dr Andre Souza, ESADE

Friday, 22 March 2024. 15:00
Professor Koen Jochmans, Toulouse School of Economics

Friday, 12 April 2024. 15:00
Dr Simon Lloyd, Bank of England

 

Please visit our Research Seminars webpage to get more information about ASBS Research events.

 

We foster a positive and productive environment for seminars through our Code of conduct.
Gilbert Scott Building Cloisters

Impact and Engagement

Learn more about our projects and policy work

Addressing inequalities

An image of a woman walking down pedestrianised city street towards traffic crossing

Dr Konstantinos Angelopoulos is the Principal Investigator on a new £297,000 grant which is funded by ESRC as part of UK Research and Innovation’s rapid response to COVID-19. This project will model changes in inequalities in income, wealth and health in the years following COVID-19, and use the models developed to assess possible mitigation policies. Understanding such medium-run changes is important because the health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and how these vary across the population, are expected to last for many years. Local project partners include Glasgow City Archives and Glasgow Life.

In a separate project, Dr Konstantinos Angelopoulos has been working with Turkana pastoralist communities to understand inequality by studying the effects of shocks and mitigating activities such as herding, education, family structure, and policy interventions. This work has been supported by the Scottish Funding Council, as part of the Global Challenges Research Fund. It includes colleagues from the MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, the School of Education, Lancaster and Erasmus Universities, and the NGO Friends of Lake Turkana, Kenya. The researchers recently published a briefing note and a booklet for local schools (see ‘Related links’).

Professor Tatiana Kirsanova and PhD students are currently studying inequality as a driver of optimal monetary and fiscal policy.

Behavioural macroeconomics

An image of a politician speaking to media

In partial collaboration with current and former PhD students, Professor Richard Dennis is conducting research in the field of behavioural macroeconomics looking at behaviours such as quasi-hyperbolic discounting, diagnostic expectations, and experienced-based-expectations. These behaviours can alter importantly how decision-makers react to new information, leading to greater economic volatility and increased persistence. This can prolong the effects of shocks such as Brexit and COVID-19.

Macroeconomic policy after COVID-19

An image of a female doctor wearing face mask

Macroprudential policies were rapidly deployed when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, with capital, liquidity and other regulations weakened or temporarily abandoned across many countries. In particular, capital regulations applying to banks were adjusted to help underpin credit to the real economy. However, little is known about the optimal formulations of such rapid-response policies. It is imperative ahead of any future pandemic or financial turmoil that the relative effectiveness of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies are evaluated. These questions are of particular interest to Professor Charles Nolan and his co-authors, including current and former PhD students.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to mounting government debt levels. Persistently low inflation has reduced the space for monetary policy to operate. Professor Tatiana Kirsanova, Professor Campbell Leith and Dr Ioana Moldovan are exploring optimal policymaking in this environment, considering that policymakers may find it difficult to commit to previously chosen actions. The policymaking process may be further complicated by political frictions generated by the electoral cycle and associated political conflict.

Our policy work

An image of the Scottish Parliament

Professor Campbell Leith and Professor Charles Nolan are experts on Scottish fiscal policy and previously served as members of the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC). As commissioners, they were responsible for scrutinising the fiscal forecasts of the Scottish Government and for preparing the SFC for the transition to a statutory body when it took over the forecasting from the Scottish Government.

Professor Ronald MacDonald was awarded an OBE in 2015 for services to Economic Policy. He has served as an advisor and consultant to a number of governments, central banks and public bodies. His current research topics include: the macroeconomic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic; the hydrogen economy and its implications for productivity and growth; and the macroeconomic implications of Scottish independence.

Media requests: If you would like to speak to one of our researchers, please contact our Communications Officer, Claire Smith.  

Publications

2024

Phella, A., Gabriel, V. J., Martins, L. F. (2024) Predicting tail risks and the evolution of temperatures. Energy Economics, 131, (doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107286)

Hashimzade, N., Kirsanov, O., Kirsanova, T., Maih, J. (2024) On Bayesian Filtering for Markov Regime Switching Models.

Phella, A. (2024) Consistent specification test of the quantile autoregression. arXiv, (doi: 10.48550/ARXIV.2010.03898)

Lavery, P., Tsoukalas, J., Wilson, N. (2024) Private equity financing & firm productivity, Working Paper No. 041.

2023

Zhang, N. (2023) Asset home bias in debtor and creditor countries. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104760)

Chen, X., Leith, C., Ricci, M. (2023) Evaluating fiscal policy reforms using the fiscal frontier. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 155, (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104733)

Dennis, R., Ilbas, P. (2023) Monetary and macroprudential policy interactions in a model of the Euro area. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104706)

Schroeder, M., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Angelopoulos, K. (2023) An extended period of elevated influenza mortality risk follows the main waves of influenza pandemics. Social Science and Medicine, 328, (doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.115975)

Görtz, C., Sakellaris, P., Tsoukalas, J. D. (2023) Firms’ financing dynamics around lumpy capacity adjustments. European Economic Review, (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104481)

Korobilis, D., Montoya-Blandón, S. (2023) Discussion of “multivariate dynamic modeling for Bayesian forecasting of business revenue” Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 39, pp. 315-317. (doi: 10.1002/asmb.2753)

Angelopoulos, K., Kammas, P. (2023) On the persistence of public sector efficiency and the role of historical institutional quality. Edward Elgar Publishing

Hashimzade, N., Kirsanov, O., Kirsanova, T. (2023) Distributional effects of endogenous discounting. Mathematical Social Sciences, 122, pp. 1-6. (doi: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2023.01.003)

Angelopoulos, K., Stewart, G., Mancy, R. (2023) Local infectious disease experience influences vaccine refusal rates: a natural experiment. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 290, (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2022.1986)

Malley, J., Philippopoulos, A. (2023) The macroeconomic effects of funding U.S. infrastructure. European Economic Review, 152, (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104334)

Görtz, C., Li, W., Tsoukalas, J., Zanetti, F. (2023) Vintage article: The effect of monetary policy shocks in the United Kingdom: an external instruments approach. Macroeconomic Dynamics, (doi: 10.1017/S1365100522000657)

2022

Koop, G., Korobilis, D. (2022) Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions. International Economic Review, (doi: 10.1111/iere.12623)

Görtz, C., Tsoukalas, J. D., Zanetti, F. (2022) News shocks under financial frictions. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14, pp. 210-243. (doi: 10.1257/mac.20170066)

Korobilis, D. (2022) A new algorithm for structural restrictions in Bayesian vector autoregressions. European Economic Review, 148, (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104241)

Baumeister, C., Korobilis, D., Lee, T. (2022) Energy markets and global economic conditions. Review of Economics and Statistics, 104, pp. 828-844. (doi: 10.1162/rest_a_00977)

Korobilis, D., Shimizu, K. (2022) Bayesian approaches to shrinkage and sparse estimation. Foundations and Trends in Econometrics, 11, pp. 230-354. (doi: 10.1561/0800000041)

Chen, X., Leeper, E. M., Leith, C. (2022) Strategic interactions in U.S. monetary and fiscal policies. Quantitative Economics, 13, pp. 593-628. (doi: 10.3982/QE1678)

Dennis, R. (2022) Computing time-consistent equilibria: a perturbation approach. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 137, (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104349)

Angeles, L. (2022) Money Matters. How money and banks evolved, and why we have financial crises. Palgrave Macmillan

Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Malley, J. (2022) Cyclical labour income risk in Great Britain. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37, pp. 116-130. (doi: 10.1002/jae.2860)

Gambetti, L., Görtz, C., Korobilis, D., Tsoukalas, J. D., Zanetti, F. (2022) The effect of news shocks and monetary policy. Emerald

Angelopoulos, K., Mancy, R., Agol, D., Lazarakis, S., Papyrakis, E. (2022) Turkana Pastoralists at Risk: Impact Evaluation Report.

2021

Tsoukalas, J. (2021) Scotland’s Productivity Challenge: Exploring the issues. (doi: 10.36399/gla.pubs.260002)

Zhang, N. (2021) Asset home bias in debtor and creditor countries.

Schroeder, M., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Angelopoulos, K. (2021) How Do Pandemics End? Two Decades of Recurrent Outbreak Risk Following the Main Waves.

Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Schroeder, M. (2021) Pandemic-Induced Wealth and Health Inequality and Risk Exposure.

Flamini, F., Leith, C. (2021) Political conflict and bargaining in a new Keynesian model of fiscal stabilization. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 25, pp. 2128-2179. (doi: 10.1017/S1365100519000993)

Korobilis, D., Landau, B., Musso, A., Phella, A. (2021) The Time-Varying Evolution of Inflation Risks. SSRN Electronic Journal, (doi: 10.2866/861413)

Angelopoulos, A., Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Philippopoulos, A. (2021) The distributional consequences of rent seeking. Economic Inquiry, 59, pp. 1616-1640. (doi: 10.1111/ecin.13009)

Zhang, N. (2021) Two-way capital flows: A risk-sharing approach.

Kirsanova, T., Nolan, C., Shafiei Deh Abad, M. (2021) Deep recessions. Economic Modelling, 96, pp. 310-323. (doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.03.026)

Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Schroeder, M. (2021) Briefing Note: Medium-run wealth inequality following COVID-19.

Leeper, E. M., Leith, C., Liu, D. (2021) Optimal time-consistent monetary, fiscal and debt maturity policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, pp. 600-617. (doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.015)

Korobilis, D. (2021) High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 39, pp. 493-504. (doi: 10.1080/07350015.2019.1677472)

2020

Phella, A. (2020) Forecasting with factor-augmented quantile autoregressions: a model averaging approach. arXiv, (doi: 10.48550/arXiv.2010.12263)

Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Malley, J. (2020) The distributional implications of asymmetric income dynamics. European Economic Review, 128, (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103502)

Korobilis, D., Pettenuzzo, D. (2020) Machine Learning Econometrics: Bayesian algorithms and methods. Oxford University Press

Beckkmann, J., Koop, G., Korobilis, D., Schuessler, R. A. (2020) Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, pp. 410-421. (doi: 10.1002/jae.2761)

Dennis, R., Kirsanov, O. (2020) Monetary Policy when Preferences are Quasi-Hyperbolic. University of Glasgow Working Paper,

Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Schroeder, M. (2020) Briefing Note: Post-pandemic mortality dynamics: historical city-level evidence.

Agol, D., Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Papyrakis, E. (2020) Briefing Note: Turkana pastoralists at risk: Why education matters.

Agol, D., Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., Papyrakis, E. (2020) Voices of the Turkana People.

2019

Zhang, N. (2019) Country portfolios under global imbalances. European Economic Review, 119, pp. 302-317. (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.07.009)

Koop, G., Korobilis, D. (2019) Forecasting with high-dimensional panel VARs. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 81, pp. 937-959. (doi: 10.1111/obes.12303)

Korobilis, D., Pettenuzzo, D. (2019) Adaptive hierarchical priors for high-dimensional vector autoregressions. Journal of Econometrics, 212, pp. 241-271. (doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.04.029)

Byrne, J. P., Cao, S., Korobilis, D. (2019) Decomposing global yield curve co-movement. Journal of Banking and Finance, 106, pp. 500-513. (doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.07.018)

Angelopoulos, K., Asimakopoulos, S., Malley, J. (2019) The optimal distribution of the tax burden over the business cycle. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23, pp. 2298-2337. (doi: 10.1017/S1365100517000700)

Angeles, L. (2019) On the nature of banks. Kyklos, 72, pp. 381-399. (doi: 10.1111/kykl.12204)

Koop, G., Korobilis, D., Pettenuzzo, D. (2019) Bayesian compressed vector autoregressions. Journal of Econometrics, 210, pp. 135-154. (doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.11.009)

2018

Waki, Y., Dennis, R., Fujiwara, I. (2018) The optimal degree of monetary discretion in a new Keynesian model with private information. Theoretical Economics, 13, pp. 1319-1367. (doi: 10.3982/TE2369)

Tsoukalas, J., Görtz, C. (2018) Sectoral TFP news shocks. Economics Letters, 168, pp. 31-36. (doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.03.001)

Leith, C., Moldovan, I., Wren-Lewis, S. (2018) Debt stabilization in a Non-Ricardian economy. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23, pp. 2509-2543. (doi: 10.1017/S1365100517000797)

Himmels, C., Kirsanova, T. (2018) Discretionary policy in a small open economy: exchange rate regimes and multiple equilibria. Journal of Macroeconomics, 56, pp. 53-64. (doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.01.001)

Kirsanova, T., Machado, C., Ribeiro, A. P. (2018) Should the ECB coordinate EMU fiscal policies? International Journal of Central Banking, 14, pp. 237-280.

Bi, H., Leeper, E. M., Leith, C. (2018) Sovereign default and monetary policy tradeoffs. International Journal of Central Banking, 14, pp. 289-324.

Dennis, R., Kirsanova, T. (2018) Equilibrium coordination with discretionary policy making. Economic Journal, 128, pp. 710-727. (doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12407)

Byrne, J. P., Korobilis, D., Ribeiro, P. J. (2018) On the sources of uncertainty in exchange rate predictability. International Economic Review, 59, pp. 329-357. (doi: 10.1111/iere.12271)

2017

Byrne, J. P., Cao, S., Korobilis, D. (2017) Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments. Journal of Empirical Finance, 44, pp. 209-225. (doi: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2017.09.004)

Chen, X., Kirsanova, T., Leith, C. (2017) How optimal is US monetary policy? Journal of Monetary Economics, 92, pp. 96-111. (doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.09.009)

Chen, X., Kirsanova, T., Leith, C. (2017) An empirical assessment of optimal monetary policy in the Euro area. European Economic Review, 100, pp. 95-115. (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.07.012)

Zhang, N. (2017) Country portfolios with habit persistence.

Görtz, C., Tsoukalas, J. (2017) News and financial intermediation in aggregate fluctuations. Review of Economics and Statistics, 99, pp. 514-530. (doi: 10.1162/REST_a_00612)

Bai, Y., Kirsanova, T., Leith, C. (2017) Nominal targeting in an economy with government debt. European Economic Review, 94, pp. 103-125. (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.02.011)

Tsoukalas, J., Tsoukas, S., Guariglia, A. (2017) To what extent are savings-cash flow sensitivities informative to test for capital market imperfections? Review of Finance, 21, pp. 1251-1285. (doi: 10.1093/rof/rfw043)

Angeles, L. (2017) The great divergence and the economics of printing. Economic History Review, 70, pp. 30-51. (doi: 10.1111/ehr.12337)

Angelopoulos, K., Economides, G., Philippopoulos, A. (2017) Environmental public good provision under robust decision making. Oxford Economic Papers, 69, pp. 118-142. (doi: 10.1093/oep/gpw041)

Korobilis, D. (2017) Quantile regression forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty. International Journal of Forecasting, 33, pp. 11-20. (doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.07.005)

Angelopoulos, K., Malley, J., Philippopoulos, A. (2017) Human capital accumulation and transition to skilled employment. Journal of Human Capital, 11, pp. 72-105. (doi: 10.1086/690445)

Angeles, L., Elizalde, A. (2017) Pre-colonial institutions and socioeconomic development: The case of Latin America. Journal of Development Economics, 124, pp. 22-40. (doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.08.006)

2016

Leith, C., Liu, D. (2016) The inflation bias under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 73, pp. 283-297. (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2016.09.002)

Leeper, E. M., Leith, C. (2016) Understanding inflation as a joint monetary-fiscal phenomenon. Elsevier

Korobilis, D. (2016) Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 101, pp. 110-120. (doi: 10.1016/j.csda.2016.02.011)

Angeles, L., Milne, R. G. (2016) Competitive provision of public services: cost savings over successive rounds of tendering. Applied Economics Letters, 23, pp. 627-632. (doi: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1093079)

Angelopoulos, K., Asimakopoulos, S., Malley, J. (2016) Optimal progressive taxation in a model with endogenous skill supply. MIT Press

Byrne, J., Korobilis, D., Ribeiro, P. J. (2016) Exchange rate predictability in a changing world. Journal of International Money and Finance, 62, pp. 1-24. (doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.12.001)

Koop, G., Korobilis, D. (2016) Model uncertainty in panel vector autoregressive models. European Economic Review, 81, pp. 115-131. (doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.09.006)

Leeper, E. M., Leith, C. (2016) Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon. (doi: 10.3386/w21867)

Dennis, R., Kirsanova, T. (2016) Computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in business-cycle models. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 20, pp. 1850-1872. (doi: 10.1017/S1365100515000176)

2015

Angeles, L. (2015) A note on debt and economic activity. Economics Letters, 136, pp. 67-69. (doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.09.009)

Angeles, L. (2015) Credit expansion and the economy. Applied Economics Letters, 22, pp. 1064-1072. (doi: 10.1080/13504851.2014.1000515)

Bauwens, L., Koop, G., Korobilis, D., Rombouts, J. V.K. (2015) The contribution of structural break models to forecasting macroeconomic series. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30, pp. 596-620. (doi: 10.1002/jae.2387)

Angeles, L., Neanidis, K. C. (2015) The persistent effect of colonialism on corruption. Economica, 82, pp. 319-349. (doi: 10.1111/ecca.12123)

Leith, C., Moldovan, I., Rossi, R. (2015) Monetary and fiscal policy under deep habits. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 52, pp. 55-74. (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.11.005)

Angelopoulos, K., Asimakopoulos, S., Malley, J. (2015) Tax smoothing in a business cycle model with capital-skill complementarity. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 51, pp. 420-444. (doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.11.002)